The truckload market has always had its ups and downs, but right now we're seeing something different. Severe winter weather is hitting hard this year, and when you combine that with tight capacity, the results are amplified. The National Truckload Index recently climbed to $2.71 per mile, including fuel, showing real turbulence in spot rates during January. This echoes some patterns from past winters, but the intensity stands out.
In previous years, snow and ice would cause brief spikes by delaying pickups, deliveries, and pulling trucks off the road for safety. Markets with more available capacity absorbed those shocks with minor rate bumps. This time around, tender rejection rates have pushed past 13.42 percent, topping even the holiday peak and staying well above the 7-8 percent level that typically drives spot inflation. Carriers are turning down more contract loads, forcing shippers to turn to the spot market where rates command a premium.
What this means is straightforward: weather disruptions no longer create small ripples. They trigger bigger waves in a market already strained by limited capacity, driver shortages, and other pressures. Shippers pay more to keep goods moving, and carriers with available trucks gain real leverage to pick the best-paying opportunities.
For trucking companies, this environment creates clear advantages if you can act quickly. Spot freight often pays better, sometimes 20 percent more than contract rates, especially when demand surges. The challenge has always been finding and securing those loads before they disappear. Many carriers still rely on scattered inboxes, multiple logins, or manual searches across platforms, which slows everything down and leaves money on the table.
That's exactly where the right technology makes all the difference. A platform that pulls everything together in real time, spots rate surges tied to weather or rejection spikes, and matches your fleet to the highest-value loads changes how you operate. It turns volatility from a headache into a revenue driver.
At Manifold, we built our platform with carriers in mind for precisely these conditions. We deliver real-time visibility into the spot market, intelligent load matching that considers weather forecasts, route issues, and your specific capacity, plus tools to forecast disruptions and avoid overcommitting. Everything lives in one dashboard, so you no longer juggle dozens of systems.
One of our customers, Stevens Trucking, has seen this transformation firsthand. Cole Stevens, their Chief Strategy Officer, put it this way in a recent testimonial: “We were missing 1,500 loads a week of direct customer spot freight… that could be paying 20% more. It was just getting shoved into inboxes.” After implementing Manifold, they achieved an 11 percent increase in spot revenue in the first 90 days, which translated to a $2 million annual impact. Cole also emphasized how the team streamlined workflows in a tough market, “breaking mileage records month after month even with shorter hauls”.
Stevens Trucking credits Manifold with helping them mine data faster, reduce fraud risks, and focus on direct shipper relationships for better margins. Cole highlighted how the platform aggregates opportunities into one screen for clear, data-driven decisions, and he summed it up bluntly: “If you're not using Manifold, you're going to be left behind.”
As winter stretches into February, rejection rates could keep spot pressure high, even with moderate storms. This will carry over into contract negotiations in the coming bid season. Trucking companies equipped with the right tools now will not only handle the turbulence but come out stronger, with higher utilization, better margins, and more control.
The spot market is full of opportunity right now, but only for those who can see it and move on it fast. If you're ready to stop missing loads and start capturing the premiums that volatility creates, take a look at what Manifold can do for your operation. Head over to getmanifold.ai and see how we can help you turn this market into your advantage.
