The truckload market is experiencing intense volatility early in 2026, with severe winter weather amplifying underlying capacity issues. The National Truckload Index has reached $2.82 per mile, including fuel, highlighting significant turbulence in spot rates during January. This pattern mirrors past winters but with greater intensity, as weather disruptions combine with tight market conditions to drive rates higher.
In years like 2024 and 2025, post-holiday rate declines were more predictable, with weather events causing only short-lived spikes. Today, tender rejection rates have exceeded 13.42%, surpassing holiday peaks and well above the 7-8% mark that signals inflationary pressures on spots. Carriers are rejecting more contract tenders, pushing shippers toward the spot market where premiums are the norm. This shift creates waves rather than ripples, as localized capacity crunches from storms spill over nationally.
For freight brokers, this environment is particularly challenging. As spot rates soar above contract levels, margins get compressed when covering loads requires paying carriers premiums while honoring fixed shipper agreements. In a market strained by driver shortages, regulatory changes, and economic pressures, brokers must secure capacity quickly or risk losing business. Yet, the real opportunity lies in booking more spot freight directly, sourcing high-value loads from shippers scrambling for options and matching them with carrier networks at profitable spreads.
The problem is that many brokers still rely on fragmented systems: multiple customer portals, clumsy email requests, and manual processes that slow down bidding and reduce visibility into available opportunities. This inefficiency means missing out on spot loads that could bolster volumes and margins during turbulent times.
The Need for Advanced Tools to Win Spot Freight
To stay competitive, brokers require technology that provides real-time visibility, streamlines bidding, and uncovers hidden opportunities. Without it, compressed margins can turn into losses, especially when rejection rates indicate chronic capacity shortages. Platforms that aggregate freight data, monitor market trends like NTI and rejections, and automate workflows allow brokers to respond faster, bid smarter, and win more business.
Manifold: Empowering Brokers to Thrive in Volatility
Manifold is built to address these pain points, helping brokers access and secure more spot freight efficiently. Our AI-driven platform consolidates opportunities from various sources into a single dashboard, creating massive opportunities to win profitable freight while enabling quick evaluation of quotes, win rates, and customer patterns.
One of our customers, Leonard’s Express, has leveraged Manifold to transform their operations. Tom O’Donnell, VP of Logistics, shared: “Before Manifold, I was manually bidding in 10 or 15 different portals. Now it’s all in one. My time has been cut in half.” He also noted that “The number of quoting opportunities is 10–15 times what it used to be,” allowing their team to bid more effectively and capture spot freight that keeps them busy and profitable even in tough conditions.
With Manifold, brokers like those at Leonard’s Express can focus on high-impact activities, turning market volatility into a source of growth rather than stress.
Looking Forward: Seizing the Moment in an Unpredictable Market
As winter continues into February, elevated rejection rates could keep spot pressures high, influencing contract talks in the upcoming bid season. For brokers, the ability to book more spot freight now is crucial to maintaining volumes and protecting margins.
In a sector where speed and insight determine success, equipping your team with the right tools makes all the difference. Discover how Manifold can help your brokerage win more spot opportunities and navigate this volatile landscape. Visit getmanifold.ai today to learn more.
